Industry Outlook

Which industries will have the most new jobs over the next five years?

Employment is projected to rise in 17 of the 19 industries over the five years to May 2023. Around two thirds of new jobs during this period are expected to come from four industries.

  1. Health Care and Social Assistance (up by 250,300, or 14.9%).
  2. Construction (118,800, or 10.0%).
  3. Education and Training (113,000, or 11.2%).
  4. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (106,600, or 10.2%).

Projected employment growth, industry share (% of total new jobs)*

Health Care and Social Assistance28
Education and Training13
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services12
Accommodation and Food Services9
Retail Trade5
Public Administration and Safety4
Administrative and Support Services3
Transport, Postal and Warehousing3
Remaining industries10

*These shares are calculated on the total new jobs projected to be created over the five years to May 2023. They exclude the projected falls for Wholesale Trade and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing.

The chart below provides more disaggregated information about where the new jobs are projected to be. It highlights the importance of service jobs to future employment growth and shows that this growth is likely to create diverse opportunities.

Largest projected employment gains by industry subdivision ('000)

Medical and Other Health Care Services85.1
Social Assistance Services83.5
Food and Beverage Services79.1
Construction Services73.8
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services*68.9
Preschool and School Education64.7
Adult, Community and Other Education39.3
Computer System Design and Related Services37.7
Residential Care Services35.1

*Except Computer System Design and Related Services.

Which industries will decline over the next five years?

Employment is projected to fall in Wholesale Trade (down by 9,700 or 2.7%) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (1,400 or 0.4%).

The 10 industry subdivisions that are projected to record the largest falls in employment include some in Wholesale Trade and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing but, notably, employment in a number of Manufacturing subsectors is also projected to fall.

Largest projected employment falls by industry subdivision ('000)

Machinery and Equipment Wholesaling-8.1
Printing (including the Reproduction of Recorded Media)-4.3
Polymer Product and Rubber Product Manufacturing-3.2
Non-Metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing-2.4
Primary Metal and Metal Product Manufacturing-2.1
Basic Material Wholesaling-1.7
Rail Transport-0.9
Pulp, Paper and Converted Paper Product Manufacturing-0.9
Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Wholesaling-0.8

Falling employment in Machinery and Equipment Wholesaling is expected to drive much of the decline in Wholesale Trade jobs.

The decline in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing employment is expected to be driven by falls in the Agriculture subsector (which accounts for the vast majority of employment in the industry), with all other subsectors projected to have modest growth or remain relatively stable.

A number of subsectors in the Manufacturing industry are projected to record employment gains over the next five years, offsetting the declines mentioned above. The largest projected rises are in

  • Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (up by 7,200 or 10.6%)
  • Furniture and Other Manufacturing (4,600 or 6.8%)
  • Basic Chemical and Chemical Product Manufacturing (3,900 or 6.7%).

Will the projected future growth provide opportunities for young people?

The industries with the youngest workforces are Accommodation and Food Services and Retail Trade. Between them, these industries are projected to add 129,000 new jobs over the five years to May 2023, and every subsector within these industries is projected to record an increase in employment.

Relatively few young workers are employed in the industries that are projected to have a reduction in employment.

Sources: Department of Jobs and Small Business, Industry Employment Projections; ABS, Labour Force (annual averages of original data)

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