Industry Outlook

Which industries will have the most new jobs over the next five years?

Employment is projected to rise in 16 of the 19 industries over the five years to November 2020.

The strong growth in Health Care and Social Assistance which has been apparent over recent years will continue, with this industry expected to add significantly more jobs than any other (up by 250,200). Large contributions to employment are also projected for Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (151,200), Education and Training (121,700), and Retail Trade (106,000). Together, these four industries are expected to provide more than half of all new jobs.

Projected employment change, by industry ('000)

This bar graph shows the number of total new jobs projected for each industry over the five years to November 2020.  Health Care and Social Assistance up by 250,200. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services up by 151,200. Education and Training up by 121,700. Retail Trade up by 106,000. Accommodation and Food Services up by 98,800. Construction up by 87,000. Transport, Postal and Warehousing up by 52,200. Public Administration and Safety  up by 51,200. Financial and Insurance Services up by 37,400. Administrative and Support Services up by 32,600. Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services up by 25,800. Other Services up by 25,500. Arts and Recreation Services up by 24,500. Information Media and Telecommunications up by 8,800. Wholesale Trade up by 3,100. Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services up by 800. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing down by 9,400. Mining down by 31,900. Manufacturing down by 45,700.

The industries projected to grow most strongly (in percentage terms) are Health Care and Social Assistance (up by 16.4%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (14.8%) and Education and Training (13.0%).

Projected employment growth, industry share (% of total new jobs)*

This pie graph shows the industry share of the total new jobs projected over the five years to November 2020.  Health Care and Social Assistance 23%.  Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 14%.  Education and Training 11%.  Retail Trade 10%.  Accommodation and Food Services 9%.  Construction 8%.  Transport, Postal and Warehousing 5%.  Public Administration and Safety 5%.  Other 15%.

In line with the strong projected growth in Health Care and Social Assistance, three of the top 10 subsectors expected to add the largest numbers of new jobs are in this industry, namely Medical and Other Health Care Services (up by 117,400 or 23.0%), Social Assistance Services (77,900 or 19.8%) and Hospitals (35,400 or 8.9%).

The chart below provides more disaggregated information about where the new jobs will be. It highlights the diversity of new opportunities.

Largest projected employment gains by subsector (‘000)

This bar chart shows projected employment gains to November 2020 by subsector.Medical and Other Health Care Services 117,400.Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (Except Computer System Design and Related Services) 117,400.Food and Beverage Services 92,800.Social Assistance Services 77,900.Construction Services 65,500.  Other Store-Based Retailing 62,100.Preschool and School Education 58,100.Public Administration 38,900.Hospitals 35,400.Computer System Design and Related Services 33,800.

Which industries will decline over the next five years?

The three industries which are projected to experience job losses are Manufacturing (down by 45,700 or 5.3%), Mining (31,900 or 14.1%) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (9,400 or 3.1%).

Although lower employment is expected in these industries, a small number of subsectors are projected to add jobs.

Despite some job losses, Manufacturing remains the sixth largest employing industry, providing employment for 860,200 workers. Three subsectors are expected to record jobs growth over the next five years

  • Food Product Manufacturing (up by 5,200 or 2.5%)
  • Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing (1,700 or 1.6%)
  • Polymer Product and Rubber Product Manufacturing (1,500 or 4.8%).

Two subsectors of the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry are projected to have higher employment, with each expected to add 500 new jobs.

  • Fishing, Hunting and Trapping
  • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Support Services.

The 10 industry subsectors which are expected to record the largest falls in employment are mainly clustered in the three industries which are projected to decline.

Largest projected employment falls by subsector (‘000)

This bar chart shows projected employment falls to November 2020 by subsector.  Transport Equipment Manufacturing -29,300.  Exploration and Other Mining Support Services -9,700.  Agriculture -9,500.  Coal Mining -8,800.  Metal Ore Mining -7,900.  Machinery and Equipment Wholesaling -7,800.  Textile, Leather, Clothing and Footwear Manufacturing -6,900.  Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing -5,400.  Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction -4,800.  Electricity Supply -4,200.

Will the future growth provide opportunities for young people?

Industries which employ large numbers of young workers (15 to 24 years) are Retail Trade, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction. All three are expected to experience some growth over the five years to November 2020, collectively adding 291,800 new jobs.

Apart from Manufacturing, relatively few young workers are employed in industries which are projected to have lower employment.

What about opportunities for females?

Women have relatively large shares of employment in four of the five industries expected to add the largest numbers of new jobs, and they comprise small proportions of employment in the three industries projected to lose jobs over the five years to November 2020.

*These shares are calculated on the total new jobs expected to be created over the next five years. They exclude the projected falls for Manufacturing, Mining, and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing.

Sources: ABS, Labour Force (annual averages of original data); Department of Employment, Industry Employment Projections